How Unexpected Was Clevelands Shellacking Of Cincinnati

Before Thursday night’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, our Elo ratings predicted a 77 percent probability of a Bengals win. Cincinnati had the higher Elo rating before the game, 1568 to 1420, and it was playing at home, both of which fed a pregame point spread of -8.5 points in the Bengals’ favor.Instead, the Browns dominated, winning 24-3 (and forcing Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton into one of the worst passing games ever). How unexpected is it for a team favored by 8.5 to lose by 21 points? And what does it say about the confidence we should have in these types of point-margin predictions — whether generated by Elo or otherwise?Nearly three decades ago, statistician Hal Stern found that, for NFL games, “the margin of victory over the pointspread (number of points scored by the favorite minus the number of points scored by the underdog minus the pointspread) is not significantly different from the normal distribution” with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 13.86 points. In other words, the likelihood of the actual margin in any given game can be described by a bell-shaped probability distribution centered on the pregame spread (in Stern’s case, the Vegas line).Stern’s original research had only tested results from the 1981, 1983 and 1984 NFL seasons. But using Vegas spread data from 1978 to 2012, I replicated Stern’s work and confirmed his findings — the final margin of victory in an NFL game can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the Vegas line and a standard deviation somewhere between 13 and 14 (for the entire 35-season sample, that standard deviation was 13.45).We can also see this effect if we plot a histogram of the prediction errors between the actual scoring margins of games and those predicted by the pregame Elo ratings:In the case of Elo, the normal distribution predicting a game’s final margin of victory is centered around the difference between the two teams’ Elo ratings divided by 25 (adding or subtracting 2.6 points if the team is at home or on the road), with a standard deviation of 13.65 points. That means the likelihood of last night’s score was about 1.5 percent, based on the pregame ratings and the location of the game.But Thursday night’s outcome wasn’t the most unexpected of the season thus far. When the Atlanta Falcons faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sept. 18, they were favored by 5 points; there was only a 0.3 percent chance they would decimate the Bucs by 42 points, which is what ended up happening. Likewise, there was only a 0.3 percent probability that the Miami Dolphins would win by 37 as one-point underdogs against the San Diego Chargers last week.Here are the most unexpected results of the 2014 season to date:It bears mentioning that the normal distribution model is an approximation, and approximations can break down at the extremes. If we toss all NFL games since 1978 into buckets based on the probability of exceeding the actual point margin and compare those buckets to the expected frequencies, we can see where the model is over- or under-estimating the likelihood of a given outcome:If the model is properly calibrated, each bucket should contain exactly 5 percent of all games. And that’s basically the case, but there are small deviations. For example, the model predicts slightly more games than it should in the top and bottom 5 percent buckets, fewer than it should in the 10 to 25 percent and 75 to 90 percent likelihood zones, and more than it should in the buckets between 40 and 60 percent. read more

The Saints Have The Best Rookie Class This Century

Oakland6.3– Houston12.7– Tennessee6.8– Denver4.7– Jacksonville9.7– Los Angeles Chargers5.3– New England1.2– Tampa Bay8.6– Carolina6.2– New York Giants11.4– Green Bay8.2– San Francisco16.3– Washington9.2– New Orleans17.8%– Los Angeles Rams9.2– Looking at the entire New Orleans roster, nearly 18 percent of the Saints’ overall AV in 2017 came from their draft class, good for the highest percentage of any team this year. Unsurprisingly, New England’s four draft picks, the fewest in the league, produced the least value for their team in 2017. Cincinnati9.0– Chicago11.5– Seattle7.9– Kansas City8.4– Indianapolis7.2– The Saints leaned on rookies more than any other teamShare of each team’s Approximate Value created by their draft picks, 2017 Buffalo10.8– New York Jets9.9– Philadelphia4.5– Minnesota8.1– Pittsburgh8.7– What’s also clear from the table above is that leaning heavily on rookies is more likely a sign of turmoil than success, as it could suggest that teams are rebuilding or that their veterans are riddled with injuries. The five teams ranked just behind the Saints in percent of team AV contributed by rookies — the 49ers, Browns, Texans, Bears and Giants — combined for only 18 wins, or 3.6 apiece.Going back to 2000, the 2017 Saints class is only surpassed by the Dallas Cowboys’ excellent 2016 draft class — headlined by Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott — in terms of total value produced during their rookie seasons. Even the 2010 Patriots’ haul, which featured Rob Gronkowski and Devin McCourty, doesn’t compare.And the Saints only had seven picks in 2017, compared with nine for the Cowboys in 2016 and 12 for the Patriots in 2010. Indeed, the Saints’ 6.1 AV per pick among draftees in their rookie year is the best of any team since at least the 2000 draft. Detroit10.3– Dallas5.6– Cleveland14.7– TeamPercent After three straight years of finishing 7-9, the New Orleans Saints seemed headed to another year of mediocrity when they began the season 0-2. But since Week 3, when New Orleans routed a 2-0 Carolina Panthers team on the road, the team has peeled off 12 wins in 15 games, including another win over the Panthers in the wild card round last Sunday.And yet there’s reason to believe the franchise revival didn’t begin in late September. It began in April, at the NFL Draft.There are lots of reasons for the Saints’ success this season — including the ageless Drew Brees and the historically good running back duo he’s been handing the ball off to — but the team’s terrific rookie class is perhaps the driving force behind it all. The Saints had just seven draft picks in the 2017 NFL draft, slightly less than the NFL average of 7.9 picks per team, and nearly every one of the picks can be viewed as either a solid addition or a huge success.Cornerback Marshon Lattimore, taken 11th overall, has helped revitalize a defense that last year ranked as the second worst in the league in terms of points allowed. Third-round running back Alvin Kamara has accumulated more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage while leading the NFL with 6.1 yards per carry. Thanks in no small part to a number of ridiculous highlight plays like Kamara’s juggling touchdown and Lattimore’s butt interception, the duo were both named to the Pro Bowl and are favorites for offensive and defensive rookie of the year.Even drafting just one of these two would be about enough to qualify a draft class as a success, but the Saints didn’t stop there. Tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who was taken 32nd overall after New Orleans traded Brandin Cooks to the New England Patriots for that pick, has played every offensive snap this season. Second-rounder Marcus Williams started 15 games and made four interceptions at safety while the remaining picks — linebacker Alex Anzalone, edge rusher Trey Hendrickson and DE Al-Quadin Muhammad — have all contributed to various degrees.Put it all together, and the Saints not only had the top draft class of any team in 2017 but one of the best this century. To show this, I used Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Approximate Value (AV) metric.1You can see more detail on how AV is calculated here. AV is “an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year.” Obviously there’s no perfect way to measure the contributions of an offensive tackle relative to a middle linebacker, but this metric allows us to at least estimate value of every player and compare them regardless of position. Comparing the total AV of every team’s rookies shows just how well the Saints drafted in 2017 relative to the rest of the league. Baltimore4.5– Miami7.1– Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com Arizona8.2– Atlanta2.7– The Saints have already won a playoff game for the first time since 2013, and they are now two wins away from going to their second Super Bowl in franchise history. If they don’t get there this year, the team’s 2017 rookie class may give them a fighting chance at another title in the handful of years before Drew Brees’s storied career comes to a close.Check out our latest NFL predictions. read more

Iowa State Is A Contender Finally

For most of the century-plus that Iowa State has been playing college football, the Cyclones have toiled in misery, the doormat of virtually every conference they’ve been a part of. That neighboring programs at the University of Iowa and University of Nebraska rose to national prominence, in part at the expense of the Cyclones, no doubt made this fact more painful for the faithful in Ames.But despite losing to Iowa in the first game of their season, the No. 16 Cyclones are the class of the region this year.At 6-3, Iowa State’s record doesn’t jump off the page, but coach Matt Campbell has turned the program around. In 2017, Campbell’s second season on the job, the Cyclones snapped a seven-year streak of losing records and capped the season with a win in the Liberty Bowl — just the fourth bowl victory in school history.Now currently on a five-game winning streak against conference foes,1A feat never before accomplished by the team. including two wins over ranked opponents, Iowa State has a chance to play in the Big 12 championship game if it beats Texas on Saturday and Kansas State next week, and West Virginia loses either to Oklahoma State or Oklahoma. The Cyclones haven’t won a conference title since before the television was invented, last doing so when they were a part of the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association. Even being ranked this late in the season has the Cyclones on the brink of another accomplishment: The team has finished a season in the Associated Press rankings only twice in school history — and never higher than 19th. By comparison, their rival to the west, Nebraska, has finished 48 seasons in the rankings.Iowa State is 12.89 points better than the average team this season, according to Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System. That would be the team’s third-best season of all time and the best mark since 1976. Not bad for a program that, through the 1990s — despite having a transcendent talent at running back — averaged an SRS of negative-4.7 and won less than 26 percent of its games.Campbell, at least at podiums, is hardly satisfied. “I think what’s exciting is that I sit here right now knowing that our best is still out there,” he said after the team’s most recent win. Iowa State’s five-game winning streak coincides with Campbell’s decision in early October to play true freshman quarterback Brock Purdy, who spurned a scholarship offer from Alabama. Purdy’s Total Quarterback Rating of 85.0 trails only Shea Patterson of Michigan (85.2), Kyler Murray of Oklahoma (95.3) and Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama (95.8).Purdy has an elite target in Hakeem Butler, the successor to recently graduated star receiver Allen Lazard. At 6-foot-6, Butler is a ball-hawking skyscraper who ranks second nationally in yards per reception (22.7) and share of receptions resulting in a first down or touchdown (86.1 percent). Add in a bruising tailback like David Montgomery — a consensus first-team All-Big 12 selection from a season ago who has amassed 1,108 yards after contact over the past two seasons, the fifth most of any running back — and the Cyclones have a frightening offensive triumvirate. In the seven seasons under Paul Rhoads, Campbell’s predecessor, Iowa State never ranked in the top 50 in offensive efficiency, but the team is on track to crack it for the second season in a row.But the pulse of Iowa State’s success is in the dominant defense installed by Campbell and defensive coordinator Jon Heacock. This season, the Cyclones rank 13th in defensive efficiency at 79.22 — 8.79 points higher than any previous season in the previous 10 years and 30.62 points higher than their average over that stretch. Iowa State leads the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.1), opposing passer efficiency rating (125), yards allowed per play (4.94) and opponent drive score percentage (25.9 percent), among other metrics.The Cyclone defense displayed its chops on Oct. 13 against West Virginia, which touts a top-five passing offense (337.3 per contest) and top-10 scoring attack (40.89 per contest). Will Grier, a likely Heisman finalist, was held to a season-low 100 passing yards, and the Mountaineer offense managed just 7 points. (West Virginia finished with 14 total points, but 7 came by way of a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown.) “We didn’t do anything right,” West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen said afterward.Iowa State’s toughest assignment left on the regular-season schedule comes Saturday against No. 15 Texas, before the Cyclones close with matchups against Kansas State and Incarnate Word.2The last game was added after Iowa State’s first scheduled game was canceled because of bad weather. But that last game, scheduled for Dec. 1, would be canceled if Iowa State can reach the conference championship.For decades, conference foes worked Iowa State like a speed bag on Saturdays, turning Jack Trice Stadium into a virtual burial ground. Opposing coaches like Tom Osborne at Nebraska and Hayden Fry at Iowa inflicted substantial punishment, year after year. But under Campbell, the cardinal and gold have shown that they won’t be pushed around. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo rating pegs the Cyclones higher than it does Central Florida, a team largely crowdsourcing its playoff candidacy but that does have the nation’s longest current winning streak. A win Saturday in Austin, a game some consider to be the program’s most significant in the past decade, wouldn’t vault Iowa State into the playoff conversation. But it would rubber-stamp a growing notion: The Cyclones — yes, those Cyclones — are finally ready to contend.Check out our latest college football predictions. read more

TCI Man shot in club fight two in hospital

first_imgFacebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Recommended for you Related Items:#GunviolenceTCI Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp#Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands – February 27, 2018 –  Police confirm they are investigating the shooting where a 32 year old man was shot in the foot.  Magnetic Media is told of a fight just after 4 a.m. Saturday at popular Club Pillows in the Bight, where another man was reportedly stabbed and is also hospitalized.A previously publiscised fight at Pillows resulted in the death of John Eddie; 29 year old Lewis Iton was arrested and remanded for the killing. Shooting, stabbing, fighting; Two arrested in Provolast_img read more

No need for Chelsea to panic says Hasselbaink

first_imgFormer Chelsea striker Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink has called for calm despite their 3-1 “spanking” by Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley on Saturday.Spurs battered Chelsea in a 3-1 defeat to jump into third place in the Premier League table as Maurizio Sarri lost his unbeaten run, but Hasselbaink says it wouldn’t be wise to read too much into the result.“Let’s not forget they’ve played 12 games and that’s the first game they’ve lost,” Hasselbaink told Sky Sports News.“Yes, they didn’t play well in the two previous games but this is the first game they’ve lost.“There is no need to panic, this was always going to happen. It’s just a pity that it happened against Tottenham and that Tottenham played that well.“But there are no issues, there is no problem whatsoever. Sarri has come in and changed it totally, it is a process.”Chelsea will try to get back to winning ways with two successive home games; a Europa League game against PAOK on Thursday and a Premier League game against Fulham on Sunday.Tammy Abraham, ChelseaChelsea hat-trick hero Tammy Abraham hopes for more Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Tammy Abraham hopes this season will be his big breakthrough at Chelsea after firing his first hat-trick for the club in Saturday’s 5-2 win at Wolves.“They need to get back on track, they’ve had a spanking and they need to win against PAOK,” Hasselbaink added.“Obviously he’s going to rest a few players in that game, it’s what he has done previously. Then they play Fulham at home who have got a new manager, a manager who knows Stamford Bridge really well.“That will be a tricky match, it’s a derby, so he needs to get three points there and start building from that.“It’s as simple as that. Forget about Manchester City because that is still three games away.“It’s PAOK, it’s Fulham and getting the confidence and those fundamentals back in their game that were so good in the previous games.”last_img read more

Dave Scott celebrates opening night of the fourthannual GI Film Festival

first_img 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek  . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsSAN DIEGO (KUSI) – The GI Film Festival San Diego is a six-day military film festival which features more “untold and underrepresented” perspectives of America’s military through film.Our own Dave Scott was on-scene for its fourth-annual opening night- which included the San Diego premiere of, “American,” by Richie Adams and starring George Takei.KUSI’s Dave Scott and Mike Smith preview, “American.” Dave Scott, KUSI Newsroom 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek  . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsGI Film Festival San Diego 2018 runs from today, Sept. 25, through Sunday, Sept. 30.Screening times vary.Museum of Photographic Arts in Balboa Park (for Sept. 25-28)UltraStar Mission Valley Cinemas at Hazard Center (for Sept. 29-30)All Access Passes and tickets available on GIFilmFestivalSD.org. Dave Scott, KUSI Newsroom, Posted: September 25, 2018 Dave Scott celebrates opening night of the fourth-annual GI Film Festival Updated: 1:20 AM September 25, 2018 Categories: Local San Diego News FacebookTwitterlast_img read more

Fire breaks out in North Park home one person transported to hospital

first_img Posted: August 27, 2019 KUSI Newsroom, August 27, 2019 KUSI Newsroom SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – At least one person became trapped inside a burning home in North Park tonight, the San Diego Fire-Rescue Department confirmed.Firefighters were called to a single-family home at 3553 Alabama St. just before 9 p.m. When they arrived flames and smoke were visible from the street.The person in the home was a female who is also disabled. She has been transported to the hospital, the extent of her injuries are unknown at this time.The fire was put out by 9:12 p.m., and there is an arson investigation underway.center_img Fire breaks out in North Park home, one person transported to hospital Updated: 10:01 PM Categories: Local San Diego News FacebookTwitterlast_img read more